The National Housing Accord needs 60,000 homes a quarter to reach 1.2 million by mid 2029. Completions sit around 27 per cent below that. New dwelling commencements fell 11.2 per cent in the March quarter of 2026 against the previous quarter, and year on year growth slowed from 26.1 per cent to 0.2 per cent. Apartment commencements dropped 20.7 per cent. An apartment now takes 33 months to complete against 21 a decade ago, and a house 11.5 months against 8.6.
Why a backlog is a shortage of you, not of work
Nearly 70 per cent of apartments approved since 2020 are still under construction, from 62 per cent in Melbourne to 83 per cent on the Gold Coast. Every one of those sites is a builder behind programme, short of crews and letting packages to whoever can turn up. For a trade or specialist subcontractor the numbers read as a market in trouble, but from inside a site office they read as a market that cannot find enough reliable subcontractors. A builder behind programme does not shop on price. They shop on who can mobilise.
Where the funded demand is moving
Public money is following social and affordable housing, health and education, which is why the buildings share of the infrastructure pipeline rose $6 billion. Those projects have funded programmes and deadlines, and their head contractors let packages fast. A framing, electrical, plumbing or fit out business that has only ever priced private residential work is one relationship away from a different kind of pipeline, one where the client is a head contractor with a programme rather than a developer waiting on presales.
What this means for subcontractors
The two standout facts in the housing numbers are that stalled sites need crews now and funded projects are being awarded now. Both are public, and both name the builder. The work is not in decline. It has moved, toward the sites and projects where funding and approvals are already in place.
Sources
- Australia promised 1.2 million new homes, but builders are at their limits, Reuters analysis, August 2026
- Quarterly Report, March 2026, National Housing Supply and Affordability Council
Figures are taken from the sources above at the time of writing. Check them before quoting them in a pitch.
